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Tại sao phải chọn ngành dẫn sóng trước khi chọn cổ phiếu?
Trong bài này, tôi giới thiệu với anh/chị phương pháp chọn ngành dẫn sóng đối với của William O'Neil và Mark Minervini.

Cần nói thêm rằng trước William O'Neil và Mark Minervini. Thì Jesse Livermore đã phát hiện sự chuyển động theo nhóm nghành của các cổ phiếu. Theo Jesse Livermore, Cổ phiếu thường hoạt động theo nhóm, cổ phiếu dẫn đầu đi trước thì các cổ phiếu khác có xu hướng sẽ đi theo cổ phiếu dẫn đầu. Trong trường hợp bạn mua một trong các cổ phiếu đầu nghành mà sau đó các cổ phiếu khác không đi theo thì bạn phải bán nó ngay vì bạn đã lựa chọn sai. Nếu một cổ phiếu nhỏ không đi theo xu hướng của nhóm nghành thì cần xem xét kỹ vì có thể cổ đông nội bộ đang bán nó ra. Và bảng tin luôn đưa ra tín hiệu để bạn biết được việc đó.

 
Tại sao phải chọn ngành dẫn sóng trước khi chọn cổ phiếu?

Theo nghiên cứu của William O’Neil, 67% siêu cổ phiếu di chuyển theo nhóm ngành. Do đó, nếu không nhận diện đúng ngành dẫn sóng, rất khó chọn đúng siêu cổ phiếu dẫn dắt thị trường.
 
Theo nghiên cứu của Steven Cohen, chuyển động giá của một cổ phiếu được đóng góp 40% bởi yếu tố thị trường chung, 30% bởi ngành và 30% còn lại là do nội tại cổ phiếu đó. Do đó, một cổ phiếu dù tốt đến đâu cũng không thể tăng giá mạnh nếu như không có 70% còn lại của thị trường chung và ngành

Mark Minervini: ” Nhóm ngành nào có số lượng các cổ phiếu thiết lập đỉnh cao mới sớm hơn thị trường chung thường là ngành dẫn đầu.

Tôi thích theo dõi danh sách các cổ phiếu tạo đỉnh 52 tuần mới. Nhóm ngành nào có số lượng các cổ phiếu thiết lập đỉnh cao mới sớm hơn thị trường chung thường là ngành dẫn đầu. Danh mục của bạn nên bao gồm những công ty tốt nhất trong 4 hoặc 5 ngành. Trong thị trường tăng giá, một số ngành sẽ tăng giá đến vài trăm phần trăm và một số nhóm ngành khác sẽ không thể đánh bại thị trường chung hoặc thậm chí giảm giá.
 
William O’Neil: ” Theo Dõi Cùng Lúc Các Cổ Phiếu Trên Sàn Nasdaq và Sàn NYSE” và “20 nhóm ngành công nghiệp dẫn dầu của NHật Báo IBD”

Chúng ta có thể nhận diện các nhóm ngành nổi lên với vai trò dẫn dắt trong thị trường tăng giá mới bằng cách theo dõi sức mạnh giá bất thường của một hoặc hai cổ phiếu trên sàn Nasdaq và các cổ phiếu liên quan được niêm yết trên sàn NYSE cũng có sự tăng giá mạnh mẽ.
 
Đó là những hướng dẫn của các nhà đầu tư kinh điển hoạt động trên thị trường chứng khoán lớn nhất thế giới, và quay trở lại thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam chúng ta thấy những hướng dẫn trên hoàn toàn chính xác, hầu hết trong những giao đoạn thị trường rõ xu hướng thì đều có dòng, nghành dẫn dắt.
 
Hiện tại những nghành có sức ảnh hưởng lớn của thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam đầu tiên phải kể đến là nghành ngân hàng nói riêng và nghành tài chính nói chung, trong một xu thế lớn của VNINDEX đều có sự tham gia dẫn dắt của nhóm nghành này, vì đây là nghành chiếm giá trị vốn hóa lớn nhất thị trường.
 
Tiếp theo là nhóm nghành dầu khí tuy không chiếm mức vốn hóa quá lớn nhưng nhóm nghành này có sự đồng thuận cao bởi ảnh hưởng trực tiếp từ diễn biến của giá dầu.
 
Nghành hàng tiêu dùng, dịch vụ... là một trong những nghành chiếm tỷ trọng giá trị vốn hóa khá cao, tuy không có sự đồng thuận nhưng đơn lẻ một cố phiếu lại có tỷ lớn như SAB, VNM, hay đa nghề như VIC, nên thường được dùng để điều tiết chỉ số khi cần thiết. Tương tự Nhóm nghành sản xuất nói chung như nghành thép, nghành nhựa, nghành phân bón....cũng hoạt động theo nhóm.

Một nghành khá lớn nhưng ít hoạt động theo nhóm một cách đồng thuận, đó là nhóm nghành bất động sản. Vì nhóm này khá rộng nên sự đồng thuận là rất khó.

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KHÓA ĐÀO TẠO CHỨNG KHOÁN:

- Khóa học Chứng khoán cơ bản miễn phí, TẠI ĐÂY

- Khóa học Đầu tư chứng khoán nâng cao, TẠI ĐÂY

Khóa huấn luyện đầu tư chứng khoán, TẠI ĐÂY

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Lớp học chứng khoán

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Phân tích cơ bản chứng khoán |Điểm cốt lõi Cổ phiếu tăng giá bền vững |
Cổ phiếu vượt đỉnh mọi thời đại cơ hội vàng cho nhà đầu tư
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